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中文摘要: 本文根据对国内外经济形势的分析和截至2007年11月底的海关统计数据,对我国进出口总额,中美和中欧贸易以及主要进出口商品进行了测算。提出了六点2008年我国对外贸易中需要关注的问题,分别是:对外贸易应遵循可持续发展原则;国际商品期货价格持续高位加大我国经济运行风险;我国产品质量安全问题值得关注;我国企业"走出去"面临多种风险;人民币升值不是解决我国贸易平衡问题的有效工具;贸易摩擦问题依然严峻。
Abstract:This paper, based on the data up to November 2007, forecasts China’s trade volume in 2007 and 2008 including that between China and major trading partners and that of major trading commodities. Attention should be paid to six problems: the sustainable development of foreign trade; the economic risk from high-level commodity futures’ prices; the safety and quality of our products; the risks of "going out"; the invalidity of appreciation of RMB in adjusting trade balance; the strict environment of trade friction.
keywords: 2008 trade forecast policy recommendations
文章编号： 中图分类号：F752.6 文献标志码：
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引用文本：
陈曦,张嘉为,张珣,李大伟,宫雪,陆凤彬,邵燕敏,徐山鹰,汪寿阳.2008年我国进出口预测与形势分析[J].中国科学院院刊,2008,(1):30-36.
Chen Xi,Zhang Jiawei,Zhang Xun,Li Dawei.Forecast and Analysis of China’s Exports and Imports in 2008[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2008,(1):30-36.
陈曦,张嘉为,张珣,李大伟,宫雪,陆凤彬,邵燕敏,徐山鹰,汪寿阳.2008年我国进出口预测与形势分析[J].中国科学院院刊,2008,(1):30-36.
Chen Xi,Zhang Jiawei,Zhang Xun,Li Dawei.Forecast and Analysis of China’s Exports and Imports in 2008[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2008,(1):30-36.
