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中文摘要: 文章对2008年以来物价变动的翘尾因素、新涨价因素,以及物价变动的成本因素进行分解,以此为视角考察未来物价的短期与中长期发展趋势。预计PPI与CPI之间的传导机制将趋于通畅,我国物价在相当长的一段时间内将处于成本推动型的较高通胀区间内。
Abstract:The paper studies and analyses the tail-raising factor, new price-rising factor of price variation as well as cost factor of price variation since the beginning of 2008. Based on these factor analyses, the paper gives a prediction for short-term mid and long-term trend of in China. It is predicted that transmission mechanism between PPI and CPI will tend to be unobstructed. Growth rate of CPI would remain in a stage of relatively high inflation of cost-driven type for a long time.
文章编号： 中图分类号：F726 文献标志码：
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引用文本：
黄德龙,杨晓光.我国物价变动的短期与中长期趋势分析[J].中国科学院院刊,2008,(5):393-397,399.
Huang Delong,Yang Xiaoguang.Short-term Trend, Mid-and Long-term Trend Analysis of Price Variation in China[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2008,(5):393-397,399.
黄德龙,杨晓光.我国物价变动的短期与中长期趋势分析[J].中国科学院院刊,2008,(5):393-397,399.
Huang Delong,Yang Xiaoguang.Short-term Trend, Mid-and Long-term Trend Analysis of Price Variation in China[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2008,(5):393-397,399.
