登录窗口
作者登录 审稿登录 编辑登录 读者登录
订阅 | 旧版入口 | English
 
  • 首页
  • 期刊简介
  • 编委会
  • 作者投稿
  • 订阅指南
  • 联系我们
  • 过刊目录
###
DOI:
中国科学院院刊:2010,(1):8-17
查看/发表评论     过刊浏览    高级检索     HTML
←前一篇   |   后一篇→
本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
下载全文
2010年我国经济形势展望
杨晓光1, 程建华2, 陈磊3, 黄德龙4
(1.中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院中国科学院预测科学研究中心;2.安徽大学经济学院;3.东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院;4.中信证券风险控制部)
Prospects for China’s Economic Trend in 2010
Yang Xiaoguang1, Cheng Jianhua2, Chen Lei3, Huang Delong4
(1.Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Center of Forecasting Science,CAS 100190 Beijing;2.Economics School of Anhui University 220039 Hefei;3.Center for Econometrics and Forecasting,School of Mathematics and Quantitative Economics,Dongbei(Northeast China) University of Finance & Economics 116025 Dalian;4.Department of Risk Management,CITICS 100004 Beijing)
摘要
图/表
参考文献
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 3451次   下载 2636次
    
中文摘要: 2010年我国经济将在当前逐步企稳回升的基础上,继续保持平稳增长,预计GDP增长约为9.5%,工业增加值增长约为13.5%,城镇固定资产投资额增长约为24%,社会消费品零售总额增长约为20%,出口增长约为13.0%,进口增长约为15.5%,进出口总额增长约为14.1%,居民消费价格指数大约上涨2.5%。针对经济形势和未来社会发展目标,建议:继续发挥政府改善投资结构的引导作用;加强金融监管,防范金融风险;切实加大保障性住房供给,遏制房价过快上涨;遏制垄断行业人为涨价,减轻通货膨胀压力;深化收入分配制度改革,提高居民收入,提高消费在内需中的比重;顺应"低碳经济"发展趋势,持续推进"节能减排"。
中文关键词: 经济形势  国际金融危机  经济复苏  预测
Abstract:Looking ahead for 2010,it may be believed that China’s economy will keep a stable growth based on the current gradual recovery.It can be predicted that the yearly GDP growth rate is about 9.5%,the growth rate of the industrial added value is about 13.5%,the growth rate of fixed asset investment in city and town is about 24%,the growth rate of the total retail value of the social consuming goods is about 20%,the growth rate of the exports is about 13.0%,the growth rate of the import is about 15.5%,and the total growth rate of the export and the import is about 14.1%,and the CPI will increase about 2.5%.In the light of the economic trend and the goal of China’s social development,the authors propose the following suggestions:a) the government continues to play a dominant role in improving investment structure;b) strengthening financial regulation and control to prevent financial risk;c) significantly increasing the supply of welfare housing,restrict too fast growth of house price;d) constraining the artificial price-hikes in monopoly industries to reduce the inflation pressure;e) deepening the reform in income-allocation,enhancing the growth of household income,and raising the ratio of consumption in domestic demand;f) following the international trend of low-carbonic economy,keeping on propelling the policy of "energy-saving and emission-reducing".
keywords: economic trend  international financial crisis  economic recovery  economic forecasting
文章编号:     中图分类号:F123    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(70871109和70673009)资助
作者单位
杨晓光 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院中国科学院预测科学研究中心 
程建华 安徽大学经济学院 
陈磊 东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院 
黄德龙 中信证券风险控制部 
Author NameAffiliation
Yang Xiaoguang Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Center of Forecasting Science,CAS 100190 Beijing 
Cheng Jianhua Economics School of Anhui University 220039 Hefei 
Chen Lei Center for Econometrics and Forecasting,School of Mathematics and Quantitative Economics,Dongbei(Northeast China) University of Finance & Economics 116025 Dalian 
Huang Delong Department of Risk Management,CITICS 100004 Beijing 
引用文本:
杨晓光,程建华,陈磊,黄德龙.2010年我国经济形势展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2010,(1):8-17.
Yang Xiaoguang,Cheng Jianhua,Chen Lei,Huang Delong.Prospects for China’s Economic Trend in 2010[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2010,(1):8-17.
 
 
您是第34731730位访问者!
1996-2021 中国科学院版本所有 备案序号: 京ICP备05002857
地址:北京三里河路52号 邮编 100864 Email:bulletin@cashq.ac.cn
技术支持:北京勤云科技发展有限公司