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中文摘要: 2010年我国经济将在当前逐步企稳回升的基础上,继续保持平稳增长,预计GDP增长约为9.5%,工业增加值增长约为13.5%,城镇固定资产投资额增长约为24%,社会消费品零售总额增长约为20%,出口增长约为13.0%,进口增长约为15.5%,进出口总额增长约为14.1%,居民消费价格指数大约上涨2.5%。针对经济形势和未来社会发展目标,建议:继续发挥政府改善投资结构的引导作用;加强金融监管,防范金融风险;切实加大保障性住房供给,遏制房价过快上涨;遏制垄断行业人为涨价,减轻通货膨胀压力;深化收入分配制度改革,提高居民收入,提高消费在内需中的比重;顺应"低碳经济"发展趋势,持续推进"节能减排"。
Abstract:Looking ahead for 2010,it may be believed that China’s economy will keep a stable growth based on the current gradual recovery.It can be predicted that the yearly GDP growth rate is about 9.5%,the growth rate of the industrial added value is about 13.5%,the growth rate of fixed asset investment in city and town is about 24%,the growth rate of the total retail value of the social consuming goods is about 20%,the growth rate of the exports is about 13.0%,the growth rate of the import is about 15.5%,and the total growth rate of the export and the import is about 14.1%,and the CPI will increase about 2.5%.In the light of the economic trend and the goal of China’s social development,the authors propose the following suggestions:a) the government continues to play a dominant role in improving investment structure;b) strengthening financial regulation and control to prevent financial risk;c) significantly increasing the supply of welfare housing,restrict too fast growth of house price;d) constraining the artificial price-hikes in monopoly industries to reduce the inflation pressure;e) deepening the reform in income-allocation,enhancing the growth of household income,and raising the ratio of consumption in domestic demand;f) following the international trend of low-carbonic economy,keeping on propelling the policy of "energy-saving and emission-reducing".
文章编号: 中图分类号:F123 文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(70871109和70673009)资助
作者 | 单位 |
杨晓光 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院中国科学院预测科学研究中心 |
程建华 | 安徽大学经济学院 |
陈磊 | 东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院 |
黄德龙 | 中信证券风险控制部 |
引用文本:
杨晓光,程建华,陈磊,黄德龙.2010年我国经济形势展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2010,(1):8-17.
Yang Xiaoguang,Cheng Jianhua,Chen Lei,Huang Delong.Prospects for China’s Economic Trend in 2010[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2010,(1):8-17.
杨晓光,程建华,陈磊,黄德龙.2010年我国经济形势展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2010,(1):8-17.
Yang Xiaoguang,Cheng Jianhua,Chen Lei,Huang Delong.Prospects for China’s Economic Trend in 2010[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2010,(1):8-17.