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中文摘要: 文章根据对国内外经济形势的分析以及模型测算,预测2010年我国房地产价格基本稳定,房地产投资和供给较快增长,房地产需求稳中有升,市场处于景气状态。主要原因有:宏观政策鼓励房地产健康发展;购房愿望和能力仍支撑刚性需求;通货膨胀预期刺激短期需求;土地供给制度制约市场供给;上游产品涨价传导到房地产市场;城市化新趋势推动房地产发展等。文中最后就房地产制度建设、调控政策、抑制投机以及城市化新挑战等提出了一些政策建议。
Abstract:Based on an analysis of the economic situation and an econometric model,this paper predicts that China’s real estate price in 2010 will remain stable,the investment and supply will keep fast growth,and the demand will turn to increase steadily.The market will maintain its prosperity.The main reasons are:macroscopic policy encouraging the real estate to develop healthily;the wish and ability for purchasing houses still supporting rigid demand;inflation expected to stimulate short-term demand;land supply system restricting marketing supply;the upstream products rising price conducting to the real estate market;and new trend of urbanization promoting the development of the real estate,etc.Finally,some suggestions on policy are proposed in this paper for the construction of the real estate system,regulating and controlling policy,restricting speculation,and new challenge for urbanization.
keywords: Real estate market forecasting affecting factors
文章编号: 中图分类号:F293.3 文献标志码:
基金项目:
引用文本:
刘纪学,汪成豪,董纪昌,汪寿阳.2010年我国房地产市场分析与预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2010,(1):25-31.
Liu Jixue,Wang Chenghao,Dong Jichang,Wang Shouyang.Forecasting and Analysis of China’s Real Estate Market in 2010[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2010,(1):25-31.
刘纪学,汪成豪,董纪昌,汪寿阳.2010年我国房地产市场分析与预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2010,(1):25-31.
Liu Jixue,Wang Chenghao,Dong Jichang,Wang Shouyang.Forecasting and Analysis of China’s Real Estate Market in 2010[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2010,(1):25-31.