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中文摘要: 文章在总结2011年国际原油市场价格走势的基础上,分析了2012年影响国际石油市场形势的主要因素,认为2012年全球宏观经济形势仍将主导国际油价走势,地缘政治因素是价格变化的最不确定因素,而石油市场供需、市场投机行为以及美元汇率等也将在不同程度上影响油价的短期波动。结合对形势的判断和我们研发的模型,我们预测,如果全球经济继续维持当前的缓慢复苏状态,2012年国际油价将整体保持上涨趋势,全年平均油价为101.6美元/桶。但是,如果欧洲债务危机出现恶化,油价将可能回落至76美元附近;相反,伊朗问题等地缘政治事件升级将推动油价突破130美元/桶。
Abstract:On the basis of reviewing the international crude oil price trend in 2011,this paper investigates the main factors dominating the international oil market in 2012.The results indicated that international oil prices will be still mainly affected by global macro-economy in 2012,and geopolitics is the most uncertain factor,while the factors such as oil market supply and demand,speculation power and US dollar exchange rate boost the short-term volatility of oil prices to some extent.Based on the analysis and the model we developed,we forecast that oil prices will present upward trend if the global economy continues to maintain the current state of slow recovery,and the average price of 2012 may stand at 101.6 dollar per barrel.However,if the European debt crisis worsened,oil prices would probably drop to 76 dollar range;in contrast,oil prices may be pushed to break through 130 dollar per barrel by escalation of Iran geopolitical event
文章编号： 中图分类号：F416.22 文献标志码：
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(No.70825001,No.71133005)资助;中科院预测科学研究中心的支持
引用文本：
姬强,朱磊,莫建雷,段宏波,许金华,范英.2012年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2012,(1):44-49.
Ji Qiang,Zhu Lei,Mo JianLei,Duan Hongbo.International Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis and Price Forecast in 2012[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2012,(1):44-49.
姬强,朱磊,莫建雷,段宏波,许金华,范英.2012年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2012,(1):44-49.
Ji Qiang,Zhu Lei,Mo JianLei,Duan Hongbo.International Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis and Price Forecast in 2012[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2012,(1):44-49.
