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中文摘要: 从能源经济发展阶段来看,目前我国大致处在美国1960年左右的水平,处在英、法、德、意、日等5大工业国1970—1980年间的水平。未来20年我国的能源弹性系数潜力为0.6,单位GDP能耗下降速度将趋缓。降低单位GDP能耗与控制能源消费总量并不完全一致,未来10年内强度控制目标应当优先于总量控制目标;减少因建筑物短寿命导致的能源浪费比提高设备用能效率更为紧迫,当前应抓紧研究和出台有助于延长建筑物生命周期的政策体系。
Abstract:From the perspective of economic-energy development,China is currently at the same development stage as the United States around 1960,and the same level of UK,France,Germany,Japan,and Italy in the range of 1970—1980.The energy demand elasticity for GDP in China is expected to be around 0.6 in the future two decades.There is some inconsistency between the two targets of reducing the energy intensity reduction and controlling total energy consumption.It is more urgent to cut down energy wasting which resulted from short cycle of buildings than improve the energy efficiency of equipment.It is suggested to study and promulgate the policies that are helpful to prolong the life of buildings.
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基金项目:中科院战略性先导科技专项课题(XDA05150600);国家自然科学基金项目(70903066,71041006)的资助
引用文本：
廖华,魏一鸣.中国能源经济发展阶段及中长期节能潜力[J].中国科学院院刊,2012,(2):214-218.
Liao Hua,Wei YiMing.China’s Energy-Economic Development Stage and Energy Conversation Potential in the Long Run[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2012,(2):214-218.
廖华,魏一鸣.中国能源经济发展阶段及中长期节能潜力[J].中国科学院院刊,2012,(2):214-218.
Liao Hua,Wei YiMing.China’s Energy-Economic Development Stage and Energy Conversation Potential in the Long Run[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2012,(2):214-218.
