Abstract:The paper investigates the main factors influencing international oil market in 2013. It is concluded that international crude oil prices are still mainly affected by the global economy, especially the slowly economic recovery process of EU and the US. Turbulent geopolitics and speculative boosting will drive the oil price fluctuate, while the unpredictable risk of oil resource-rich countries and downside risk of US dollar exchange rate dominate the short-term volatility of oil prices to some extent. We construct an oil price analysis and forecasting system by integrating generalized pattern matching approach, traditional season adjustment, and market expectation. We forecast that the crude oil prices will present mild downward trend, and the yearly average price of 2013 may stand at 105 dollars per barrel. However, if the US economy is depressed and European debt crisis is worsened, or otherwise, if geopolitical crisis overspreads in the whole Middle East region, the yearly average price may fall or rise by 20 dollar per barrel.