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修订日期:2013-05-02
修订日期:2013-05-02
中文摘要: 中国农业在取得了举世瞩目成就的同时也面临着巨大挑战。文章阐述了新时期中国农业发展的机遇、挑战和战略选择,指出农业的国家支持政策、农业比较效益的提高、农业生产结构的改善以及科技发展等是未来农业面临的主要发展机遇,但中国农业也将面临农产品需求增长、自然资源退化、生产力增长乏力、生产经营规模小、劳动成本上升、气候变化、价格波动等巨大挑战。我们预测,未来食物供需缺口将逐渐增大,食物安全问题将日益突出。为此,国家支持政策的重点需要聚焦在农业生产力的提升上,并调整新时期现代农业的发展战略。
中文关键词: 农业发展,机遇 挑战,发展战略,中国
Abstract:While the performance of China’s agriculture has been impressive, it is also facing increasing challenges. This paper explores the opportunities, challenges, and strategies of China’s agricultural development in the new era. Nation’s policies supporting agriculture, rising agricultural price and its comparative advantage, agricultural structural change, and potential technology innovation are going to be the major opportunities of agricultural development. However, China’s agriculture will also face great challenges in terms of meeting the nation’s increasing demand for agricultural commodities, increasing constraints of land and water resources, slowing down of productivity growth, small farming, rising labor cost, climate change, and price volatility. We project that the deficit of food supply and demand will be gradually enlarged in the coming decades. The paper concludes that, to improve China’s food security, the national policy should primarily focus on agricultural productivity enhanced investment, and meantime adjust its agricultural development strategies in the new era.
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基金项目:中科院地理科学与资源所(2012ZD2008)、清华大学中国农村研究院(CIRS12012-2)和农业部计划司委托课题
引用文本:
黄季焜.新时期的中国农业发展:机遇、挑战和战略选择[J].中国科学院院刊,2013,(3):295-300.
Huang Jikun.China’s Agricultural Development in the New Era: Opportunities, Challenges, and Strategies[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2013,(3):295-300.
黄季焜.新时期的中国农业发展:机遇、挑战和战略选择[J].中国科学院院刊,2013,(3):295-300.
Huang Jikun.China’s Agricultural Development in the New Era: Opportunities, Challenges, and Strategies[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2013,(3):295-300.