Abstract:The paper investigates the main factors influencing international oil market in 2014. It is found that international oil prices are mainly dominated by the global economy and oil supply fundamentals. The appreciation of US dollar index may suppress oil prices, while speculative activities and geopolitical risks can influence oil price volatilities to some extent. A synthetic oil price analysis and forecasting system was established in the study. The forecasting results demonstrate that the oil prices will present slightly downward trend, the Brent average year price of 2014 may stand at 104 dollar per barrel, and the WTI average year price mostly stand at 95 dollar per barrel. The gap between Brent and WTI will be narrower.