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中文摘要: 社会事件的前卫指标来源于网络, 随着网络技术平台的发展, 使得信息
网络传播更为迅速和广泛,给社会事件的舆情应对带来诸多挑战。 文章以社会事
件网络舆情干预机制为研究对象, 从舆情传播过程的视角 , 提出社会事件网络舆
情干预机制的 4 个阶段, 即舆情干预判断、干预时机、干预措施和干预评价。 此
外, 文章还具体分析了各关键干预环节的技术解决方案, 并给出 舆情干预的政策
建议,为政府及相关部门对舆情的应对提供借鉴。
中文关键词: 社会事件,网络舆情,政府干预,干预机制
Abstract:With the development of internet, the net becomes an increasing important channel for people to
post, access, and exchange information. By 2012, the number of global internet users had reached 2.5 billion.
The number of new users in Asian countries accounted for 54%, much higher than that in other continents.
Among these countries, the Chinese users rose to 0.56 billion with an average time of accessing internet 2.9
hours per day. However, due to lack of authority and authenticity, the internet media gradually becomes a breeding ground of public opinion crises. For example, the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the 2011 China Wenzhou
train collision, the 2012 Islands dispute in East Asia, the 2013 PRISM incident, and the 2014 Malaysia Airlines
plane crash caused great attention and wide discussion on the internet, which further developed into unpredictable online public opinion crises. It brings many difficulties to the response of online public opinion crises. The
phenomenon has drawn increasing attention from social scientists around the world. Therefore, the paper focuses on the intervention mechanism of online public opinion crisis. After collecting and sorting several public
opinion crisis incidents in recent years, the basic expression forms, driving factors, and specific patterns of public opinion spread are systematically summarized. Then considering the general dissemination and spread process of online public opinion. The intervention mechanism can be divided into four parts in this paper. The first
part is the judgment for public opinion intervention. By calculating and comparing the relevant indexes, we will
further determine if the public opinion crisis incidents need to be intervened in this part. The second part is the
time selection for public opinion intervention. Considering the high similarity of public opinion spread process
of similar events, the paper summarize the general dissemination process of 8 classes of public opinion crisis
events. Through analyzing the variation regularity of similar events, we could find the best time for intervention in this part. The third part is the intervention strategy choice. After evaluating the level and type of different social events, we will choose the better set of intervention strategies in this part. The specific intervention
strategies include isolation strategy, insertion strategy, and reconstitution strategy etc. The last part is the effect evaluation for intervention. We will use some evaluation methods and strategies, such as entropy evaluation method, expert
evaluating method, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, to assess the implementation effect of different intervention mechanisms in this part. Considering the principles of usefulness, comprehensiveness, scientificalness, and applicability, this study also discusses the technical solutions and effective ways of each part of intervention mechanism. The related core technologies
mainly include public opinion monitoring system, propagation process simulation, network evolution simulation, and effect
evaluation for intervention. Public opinion monitoring system is mainly used in data acquisition of different social events. After collecting the online data in the field of occurrence time, incident location and event attribute, propagation process simulation can be used to determine the diffusion process of public opinion. Network evolution simulation is the tool to analyze the
possible evolution pattern of public opinions. Besides, this paper also gives policy proposals for the intervention of public opinion, which could provide references for the government or relevant departments in the disposal of online public opinion crises.
The specific policy proposals are shown as follows. The first proposal is to establish the legal system for the management of
network public opinion. The second proposal is to classify the public opinion and develop the differentiated strategies for social events. The third proposal is to establish a long-term monitoring and early warning mechanism of online public opinion.
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引用文本:
王红兵 王光辉.[2015年第1期] 社会事件网络舆情的政府干预机制[J].中国科学院院刊,2015,30(1):.
Wang Hongbing Wang Guanghui.Government intervention mechnanism of social public opinion crisis[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2015,30(1):.
王红兵 王光辉.[2015年第1期] 社会事件网络舆情的政府干预机制[J].中国科学院院刊,2015,30(1):.
Wang Hongbing Wang Guanghui.Government intervention mechnanism of social public opinion crisis[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2015,30(1):.