Abstract:OPEC production decisions will have important impacts on the global oil supply situation and also affect the confidence and market expectation for the recovery of upward trend of oil prices in 2016. The recovery progress of the global economy, especially OECD countries will be the key factor in the impact of demand growth. Besides, the changes of US dollar exchange rate, behaviors of market speculation and impacts of geopolitical events will influence the uncertainty of the short-term fluctuations in the oil prices. Using our oil price analysis and forecasting synthetic system, we forecast that oil prices will still keep fluctuations at a low level in 2016, and the Brent average year price may stand at 55 dollar per barrel and WTI average year price stand at 51 dollar per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI will be narrowed to 4 dollar per barrel. The production decision in OPEC and competition for market share among OPEC, Russia and other oil producers will be the largest uncertainty affecting oil price forecasting.