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投稿时间:2017-03-29
投稿时间:2017-03-29
中文摘要: 贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的关键内容和核心环节。文章基于对我国与沿线国家贸易合作宏观形势的分析,从贸易规模、贸易联系、贸易平衡、贸易网络等角度综合分析中国与沿线国家的贸易特征,并在此基础上通过模型测算未来中国与沿线各国的贸易增长潜力。研究结果表明:(1)我国与沿线国家贸易增长迅速,贸易联系日趋紧密;2014年以来贸易平衡从逆差转变为顺差。(2)“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易网络可以识别出三个主组团及两个次组团;从我国贸易格局看,东南亚与我国贸易联系最紧密,其次为西亚。(3)我国与沿线国家贸易发展潜力最大的主要是东南亚国家、俄罗斯、印度、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋等。
Abstract:‘Unimpeded trade’ is one of the priorities of cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. It is important to examine the spatial-temporal characteristics of foreign trade between China and Silk Road Countries (SRCs) for promoting economic prosperity and regional cooperation along Silk Roads. Based on review of the macro situation along Silk Road regions, this paper first analyzes spatial-temporal characteristics of trade cooperation between China and SRCs, and then estimates trade potential using in-sample and regression approaches. The finding of this paper are salutary. First, with the rapid growth of foreign trade between China and SRCs, the trade network along Silk Road regions are getting closer and closer; meanwhile, with the increase of China's export to SRCs and SRCs' import from China, the trade balance between China and SRCs has shifted from trade deficit to trade surplus since 2014. Second, we can identify three trade communities and two sub communities in the trade network along Silk Road regions, through community detection algorithm, in which China is the core node of the biggest trade community. As for China, Southeast Asia is the most close trade partner, followed by West Asia; while the trade volume between China and Central Asia is still small. Third, the regression results indicate that, in 2020, the most significant potential trade partners for China are some Southeast Asia countries, such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Russia, India, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
keywords: China Silk Road countries trade cooperation spatial-temporal characteristics trade potential
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基金项目:中科院科技战略咨询院重大项目(Y02015001),中科院国际合作局对外合作重点项目(131551KYSB20160002)
引用文本:
宋周莺,车姝韵,张薇.我国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易特征研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(4):363-369.
Song Zhouying,Che Shuyun,Zhang Wei.Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Foreign Trade between China and Countries along the Silk Roads[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(4):363-369.
宋周莺,车姝韵,张薇.我国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易特征研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(4):363-369.
Song Zhouying,Che Shuyun,Zhang Wei.Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Foreign Trade between China and Countries along the Silk Roads[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(4):363-369.