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投稿时间：2021-01-04
投稿时间：2021-01-04
中文摘要: 2021年中国面临着新冠肺炎疫情和复杂国际形势的共同影响，未来经济发展方向备受关注。文章依据经济理论、现实经验、生产要素变化等，系统分析和预测了中国中长期经济增长速度的变动趋势为呈波浪形下降。基于投入产出技术、计量经济学、景气分析法、专家分析法、情景分析等，提出了年度GDP增速预测的系统综合因素预测法。在对2020年中国全年经济发展进行简要回顾的基础上，根据目前国内、国际形势对2021年中国经济增长速度做出了预测：预计2021年中国经济将实现恢复性增长，全年增速为8.5%左右。文章进而基于经济形势分析提出了促进中国经济发展的相关政策建议：继续促进消费，稳增长、促发展，建设科技创新型国家，加快产业结构转型升级。
Abstract:Under the joint impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the complex international situation, the future direction of China's economic development has attracted much attention. This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China's medium and long-term economic growth rate. It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape. Based on the systematic integrated prediction approach on annual GDP growth proposed by our team, this study reviews China's economic development in 2020 and forecasts China's economic growth rate in 2021. It is expected that China's economy will achieve a restorative growth with an annual growth rate of about 8.5% in 2021. The policy suggestions are further proposed based on the analysis, including promoting domestic consumption, stabilizing economic growth and development, building a science and technology innovation-oriented country, as well as accelerating the transformation of industrial structure.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金（71988101、61873261）
引用文本：
陈锡康,杨翠红,祝坤福,王会娟,李鑫茹,姜青言.2021年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2021,36(1):37-46.
CHEN Xikang,YANG Cuihong,ZHU Kunfu,WANG Huijuan,LI Xinru,JIANG Qingyan.Forecast of China's Economic Growth Rate in 2021 and Policy Suggestions[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2021,36(1):37-46.
陈锡康,杨翠红,祝坤福,王会娟,李鑫茹,姜青言.2021年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2021,36(1):37-46.
CHEN Xikang,YANG Cuihong,ZHU Kunfu,WANG Huijuan,LI Xinru,JIANG Qingyan.Forecast of China's Economic Growth Rate in 2021 and Policy Suggestions[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2021,36(1):37-46.
