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DOI:10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20211120005
中国科学院院刊:2022,37(2):160-167
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基于智库双螺旋法的科技前瞻研究
张凤1,2, 吴静1,2, 裴瑞敏1
(1.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;2.中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049)
Science and Technology Foresight Based on Think Tank Double Helix Methodology
ZHANG Feng1,2, WU Jing1,2, PEI Ruimin1
(1.Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;2.School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)
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投稿时间:2022-01-30    
中文摘要: 科技前瞻是科技发展战略研究的一种重要形式,是科技智库发挥决策服务支撑作用的重要体现。科技前瞻作为智库大规模研究问题,在研究过程中面临学科交叉性挑战、相互关联性挑战、政策实用性挑战、社会影响性挑战、创新性挑战、不确定性挑战等“六大挑战”,具有高度复杂性,亟待形成科学化、标准化研究范式,以保障高质量科技前瞻成效。文章在探讨科技前瞻国内外研究进展的基础上,提出智库双螺旋法对科技前瞻的思维指导、过程指导、操作指导,形成了规范化、体系化的科技前瞻研究思路和方法,以期为科技发展战略研究提供借鉴。
中文关键词: 科技前瞻  智库双螺旋法  战略研究  DIIS过程融合法  MIPS逻辑层次法
Abstract:Science and technology (S&T) foresight is an important form of S&T development strategy study. Based on the needs of economic and social development and the law of S&T innovation and development, S&T foresight is a process of forming a consensus on the medium and long-term S&T development trends among experts in multiple disciplines and fields, so that to provide scientific basis and decision support for S&T planning and policy making. With the rapid development of technology over the world, carrying out S&T foresight is crucial for China to seize opportunities for technological innovation, seize the frontier and opportunities of technological revolution, realize selfreliance and self-improvement in S&T, and build into an S&T giant. However, as a large-scale think tank research project, S&T foresight faces systemic challenges and collaborative challenges from the organization of a large number of multidisciplinary and multi-field research teams. Meanwhile, in the research process of S&T foresight, it faces interdisciplinary challenges, interrelated challenges, practical policy challenges, social influential challenges, innovative challenges, and uncertain challenges. There is an urgent need to form a comprehensive and systematic research ideas and methodology for S&T foresight of think tank. To this end, this study analyzes the thinking guidance, process guidance, and operation guidance of the think tank double helix methodology for the S&T foresight. The thinking guidance of the double helix methodology to the S&T foresight is mainly reflected in the design of the overall work plan. Under the guidance of the double helix methodology, S&T foresight needs to grasp the foresight goals of S&T development from the national strategic needs, and comb the internal mechanism of S&T foresight based on historical data and current situation analysis; under the mechanism-impact-policy-solution (MIPS) architecture, through parallel relationship decomposition, serial relationship decomposition, and matrix relationship decomposition and other decomposition methods, the S&T foresight project can be decomposed into a number of independent sub-problems with inherent logical connections; focusing on the sub-problem research needs, a research team consist of multi-field expert with vertical hierarchical and horizontal cross-cutting relationship is formed, and a progressing schedule should be reached to form time coordination and research collaboration under the guidance of datainformation-intelligence-solution (DIIS). The process guidance and operation guidance of the double helix methodology for S&T foresight are embodied in the four stages of DIIS. Firstly, in the data collection stage of S&T foresight, it is necessary to scan and review the progress of S&T foresight issues over the world as well as selection criteria, to form a multi-dimensional data database. Secondly, in the stage of information disclosure, it is necessary to form the judgement on the current state of S&T development, future development vision, and selection criteria. Thirdly, in the stage of intelligence analysis, the key directions of S&T foresight can be comprehensively shaped through repeated iterations of objective data analysis and expert judgments. Finally, research reports and policy recommendation reports are produced to provide policymaking support for the S&T development.
keywords: S&T foresight  think tank double helix methodology  strategy study  data-information-intelligence-solution (DIIS)  mechanismimpact-policy-solution (MIPS)
文章编号:     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家高端智库建设试点专项,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院重大突破项目(E1X0771601)
作者单位
张凤1,2 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049 
吴静1,2* 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049 
裴瑞敏1 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190 
Author NameAffiliation
ZHANG Feng1,2 Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 
WU Jing1,2* Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 
PEI Ruimin1 Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China 
引用文本:
张凤,吴静,裴瑞敏.基于智库双螺旋法的科技前瞻研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2022,37(2):160-167.
ZHANG Feng,WU Jing,PEI Ruimin.Science and Technology Foresight Based on Think Tank Double Helix Methodology[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2022,37(2):160-167.
 
 
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