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投稿时间：2022-05-01
投稿时间：2022-05-01
中文摘要: 当前，我国高水平科技自立自强亟待颠覆性技术开新局、走新途。布局发展颠覆性技术是一项战略性的复杂系统工程，而颠覆性技术的识别是关键和前提。文章基于颠覆性技术变轨跃迁、由边缘力量到未来主流“10→3→1”收敛的底层逻辑，针对科技驱动的来源方式提出“发现—遴选—评价”的识别思路，开发出一套从科学端出发的颠覆性技术识别方法框架，以期为颠覆性技术的早期识别提供参考。
Abstract:To realize sci-tech self-reliance and self-strengthening at higher levels in China, it is imperative for disruptive technologies to embark on a new journey and open new horizons. The layout and development of disruptive technologies is a complicated and systematic project with strategic significance, in which the identification of disruptive technologies holds the key and serves as the premise. To this end, based on the underlying logic that disruptive technologies are destined to transit from marginalized forces to mainstream power in the future through the process of 10→3→1 constringency, on the understanding that the generation of disruptive technologies is driven by science and technology, the study puts forward the identifying approach of "identifying-selecting-evaluating", and develops a methodological framework for identifying disruptive technologies based on science with a view to providing reference for the early identification of disruptive technologies.
keywords: disruptive technology technology identification methodological framework on emerging stage based on science
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引用文本：
邓建军,刘安蓉,曹晓阳,张科,白光祖,陈悦,高智杰,戴海闻,王伟楠.颠覆性技术早期识别方法框架研究——基于科学端的视角[J].中国科学院院刊,2022,37(5):674-684.
DENG Jianjun,LIU Anrong,CAO Xiaoyang,ZHANG Ke,BAI Guangzu,CHEN Yue,GAO Zhijie,DAI Haiwen,WANG Weinan.Methodological Framework of Identifying Disruptive Technologies on Emerging Stage: Based on Science[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2022,37(5):674-684.
邓建军,刘安蓉,曹晓阳,张科,白光祖,陈悦,高智杰,戴海闻,王伟楠.颠覆性技术早期识别方法框架研究——基于科学端的视角[J].中国科学院院刊,2022,37(5):674-684.
DENG Jianjun,LIU Anrong,CAO Xiaoyang,ZHANG Ke,BAI Guangzu,CHEN Yue,GAO Zhijie,DAI Haiwen,WANG Weinan.Methodological Framework of Identifying Disruptive Technologies on Emerging Stage: Based on Science[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2022,37(5):674-684.
