本文已被:浏览 1643次 下载 1476次
中文摘要: 科技前瞻是科技发展战略研究的一种重要形式,是科技智库发挥决策服务支撑作用的重要体现。科技前瞻作为智库大规模研究问题,在研究过程中面临学科交叉性挑战、相互关联性挑战、政策实用性挑战、社会影响性挑战、创新性挑战、不确定性挑战等“六大挑战”,具有高度复杂性,亟待形成科学化、标准化研究范式,以保障高质量科技前瞻成效。文章在探讨科技前瞻国内外研究进展的基础上,提出智库双螺旋法对科技前瞻的思维指导、过程指导、操作指导,形成了规范化、体系化的科技前瞻研究思路和方法,以期为科技发展战略研究提供借鉴。
Abstract:Science and technology (S&T) foresight is an important form of S&T development strategy study. Based on the needs of
economic and social development and the law of S&T innovation and development, S&T foresight is a process of forming a consensus on
the medium and long-term S&T development trends among experts in multiple disciplines and fields, so that to provide scientific basis and
decision support for S&T planning and policy making. With the rapid development of technology over the world, carrying out S&T is crucial
for China to seize opportunities for technological innovation, seize the frontier and opportunities of technological revolution, realize selfreliance
and self-improvement in S&T, and build into an S&T giant. However, as a large-scale think tank research project, S&T foresight faces
systemic challenges and collaborative challenges from the organization of a large number of multidisciplinary and multi-field research teams.
Meanwhile, in the research process of S&T foresight, it faces interdisciplinary challenges, interrelated challenges, practical policy challenges,
social influential challenges, innovative challenges, and uncertain challenges. There is an urgent need to form a comprehensive and systematic
research ideas and methodology for S&T foresight of think tank. To this end, this study analyzes the thinking guidance, process guidance, and
operation guidance of the think tank double helix methodology for the S&T foresight. The thinking guidance of the double helix methodology
to the S&T foresight is mainly reflected in the design of the overall work plan. Under the guidance of the double helix methodology, S&T
foresight needs to grasp the foresight goals of S&T development from the national strategic needs, and comb the internal mechanism of S&T
foresight based on historical data and current situation analysis; under the mechanism-impact-policy-solution (MIPS) architecture, through
parallel relationship decomposition, serial relationship decomposition, and matrix relationship decomposition and other decomposition methods,
the S&T foresight project can be decomposed into a number of independent sub-problems with inherent logical connections; focusing on the
sub-problem research needs, a research team consist of multi-field expert with vertical hierarchical and horizontal cross-cutting relationship
is formed, and a progressing schedule should be reached to form time coordination and research collaboration under the guidance of datainformation-
intelligence-solution (DIIS). The process guidance and operation guidance of the double helix methodology for S&T foresight are
embodied in the four stages of DIIS. Firstly, in the data collection stage of S&T foresight, it is necessary to scan and review the progress of S&T
foresight issues over the world as well as selection criteria, to form a multi-dimensional data database. Secondly, in the stage of information
disclosure, it is necessary to form the judgement on the current state of S&T development, future development vision, and selection criteria.
Thirdly, in the stage of intelligence analysis, the key directions of S&T foresight can be comprehensively shaped through repeated iterations
of objective data analysis and expert judgments. Finally, research reports and policy recommendation reports are produced to provide policymaking
support for the S&T development.
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:
作者 | 单位 |
张凤 吴静 裴瑞敏 |
Author Name | Affiliation |
引用文本:
张凤 吴静 裴瑞敏.基于智库双螺旋法的科技前瞻研究[J].中国科学院院刊,,():.
.Science and Technology Foresight Based on Think Tank Double Helix Methodology[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,,():.
张凤 吴静 裴瑞敏.基于智库双螺旋法的科技前瞻研究[J].中国科学院院刊,,():.
.Science and Technology Foresight Based on Think Tank Double Helix Methodology[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,,():.