2023年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议

陈锡康<sup>1; 2</sup>; 杨翠红<sup>1; 2; 6*</sup>; 祝坤福<sup>3</sup>; 王会娟<sup>4</sup>; 李鑫茹<sup>5</sup>; 尹杰<sup>1; 2; 6</sup>

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投稿时间：2022-12-29

中文摘要: 受新冠肺炎疫情及采取的对应措施等因素的影响，2022年中国经济增速回落。文章认为从中长期来看，中国的经济增速大致呈下降趋势，整体表现为波浪形，2023年经济发展仍存在较大不确定性。文章利用投入产出技术、统计方法与计量经济学、景气分析法、专家分析法、情景分析法等方法构建了国内生产总值（GDP）增速的系统综合因素预测法，基于对2022年中国经济增长的回顾与分析，结合当前国内外形势，预计2023年中国经济有望平稳运行，增速达到6.0%左右；通过当前经济形势分析，文章进一步提出如下建议：加大宏观政策调节力度，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，扩消费增就业促投资，着力稳定宏观经济大盘，防范化解重大领域风险，发挥我国在全球产业链上的优势等。

中文关键词: 经济预测经济形势分析国内生产总值政策建议

Abstract:China's economic growth slowed down in 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the corresponding measures. There are great uncertainties in China's economic development in 2023. It is expected that China's medium and long-term economic growth rate will show a wavy downward trend. Based on input-output technology, econometrics, prosperity analysis, expert analysis, and scenario analysis, this study proposes a systematic integrated factor prediction approach on annual GDP growth. Through analysis of China's economic growth in 2022 and the current situation worldwide, China's economic growth rate is predicted to be about 6.0% in 2023, reverting to the normal level. The policy recommendations are further put forward based on the analysis, including strengthening the adjustment of macro-policy, implementing proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, boosting domestic consumption, increasing employment and promoting investment, striving to stabilize the macro-economic market, preventing and defusing risks in major fields, and leveraging China's advantages in the global industrial chain.

keywords: economic forecast economic situation analysis gross domestic product (GDP) policy suggestions

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基金项目:

作者	单位
陈锡康^1,2	中国科学院预测科学研究中心北京 100190 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院北京 100190
杨翠红^1,2,6*	中国科学院预测科学研究中心北京 100190 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院北京 100190 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院北京 100190
祝坤福³	中国人民大学经济学院北京 100872
王会娟⁴	中央财经大学统计与数学学院北京 102206
李鑫茹⁵	首都经济贸易大学经济学院北京 100070
尹杰^1,2,6	中国科学院预测科学研究中心北京 100190 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院北京 100190 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院北京 100190

Author Name	Affiliation
CHEN Xikang^1,2	Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
YANG Cuihong^1,2,6*	Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
ZHU Kunfu³	School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
WANG Huijuan⁴	School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102206, China
LI Xinru⁵	School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
YIN Jie^1,2,6	Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

引用文本：
陈锡康,杨翠红,祝坤福,王会娟,李鑫茹,尹杰.2023年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2023,38(1):81-90.
CHEN Xikang,YANG Cuihong,ZHU Kunfu,WANG Huijuan,LI Xinru,YIN Jie.Forecast of China's Economic Growth Rate in 2023 and Policy Suggestions[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2023,38(1):81-90.