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投稿时间:2023-06-09
投稿时间:2023-06-09
中文摘要: 颠覆性技术对未来产业发展的路径、方向和国际竞争格局具有关键影响。因此,前瞻布局颠覆性技术驱动的未来产业是我国抢占科技制高点、加快构建新发展格局的必然选择。文章对美国“电子复兴计划”布局颠覆性技术、培育未来产业的技术识别机制、组织管理机制、评价机制和示范应用机制进行了全流程、全链条的深度分析,提炼颠覆性技术和未来产业科学内涵、关键要素,并从“颠覆性技术供给—技术产业转化—技术产业应用”环节构建了“颠覆性技术驱动的未来产业培育模式”研究框架;相关研究发现对我国培育颠覆性技术驱动的未来产业具有关键借鉴意义。文章提出我国应面向未来产业建立长期、动态的颠覆性技术甄别与支持机制;进一步加强市场导向、多元参与的管理模式与政策设计,建立多种技术路线并行的颠覆性技术动态比较与竞争退出机制;包容由于技术研发、技术路线等客观因素导致的失败,形成与关键核心技术攻关的“揭榜挂帅”相差异化的考核评价机制;完善面向未来产业应用场景的颠覆性技术示范应用,推动未来产业先导示范区等试点示范与应用场景探索。
Abstract:Disruptive technologies have key impact on the path, direction, and international competition pattern of future industrial development, so the forward-looking layout of future industries driven by disruptive technologies is an inevitable choice for China to seize the commanding heights of science and technology and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. Based on the in-depth analysis of the whole process and whole chain of the United States’ Electronics Resurgence Initiative layout of disruptive technologies and the technology identification mechanism, organization management mechanism, evaluation mechanism, and demonstration application mechanism of cultivating future industries, this study extracts the scientific connotation and key elements of disruptive technologies and future industries, and constructs the research framework of “disruptive technology-driven future industry cultivation model” from the links of “disruptive technology supply-technology industry transformation-technology industry application”. Relevant research findings have key reference significance for China’s cultivation of future industries driven by disruptive technologies. This study proposes that China should establish a long-term and dynamic disruptive technology identification and support mechanism for future industries, further strengthen the marketoriented and multi participation management model and policy design, establish a dynamic comparison and competitive exit mechanism of disruptive technologies with multiple technical routes in parallel, tolerate failures caused by objective factors such as technology research and development and technical routes, form an assessment and evaluation mechanism differentiated from the key core technology research, improve the demonstration and application of disruptive technologies for future industrial application scenarios, and promote pilot demonstrations and application scenarios such as future industry pilot demonstration zones.
keywords: disruptive technology future industry Electronics Resurgence Initiative frontier deployment path
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基金项目:中国科学院青年创新促进会会员项目(E3X06816),国家自然科学基金重点项目(NSFC71834006),教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(20JZD022),国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(NSFC72104227)
引用文本:
张越,余江,杨娅,陈凤.颠覆性技术驱动的未来产业培育模式与路径研究——美国布局下一代集成电路产业的启示[J].中国科学院院刊,2023,38(6):895-906.
ZHANG Yue,YU Jiang,YANG Ya,CHEN Feng.Cultivation Mode and Path of Future Industries Driven by Disruptive Technologies —Enlightenment of the United States’ Layout of Next Generation of Integrated Circuit Industry[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2023,38(6):895-906.
张越,余江,杨娅,陈凤.颠覆性技术驱动的未来产业培育模式与路径研究——美国布局下一代集成电路产业的启示[J].中国科学院院刊,2023,38(6):895-906.
ZHANG Yue,YU Jiang,YANG Ya,CHEN Feng.Cultivation Mode and Path of Future Industries Driven by Disruptive Technologies —Enlightenment of the United States’ Layout of Next Generation of Integrated Circuit Industry[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2023,38(6):895-906.