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投稿时间:2023-09-04
投稿时间:2023-09-04
中文摘要: 积极开展与“一带一路”共建国家的气候合作,对实现共建国家低碳转型和高质量发展有着重要的现实意义。文章利用“一带一路”能源经济模型(CGEM-BRI),模拟了不同典型浓度路径(RCP)和不同配额分配方式下“一带一路”共建国家的低碳转型路径,分析了共建国家低碳转型潜在的资金、能力建设和管理制度需求,给出了中国与共建国家开展气候合作的建议。研究发现,为实现2100年全球1.5℃温控目标,到2050年“一带一路”共建国家整体可再生能源占一次能源消费总量比重至少要达到65%;共建国家实现国家自主贡献(NDCs)中的低碳发展目标保守估计需要19.2万亿美元,且不同国家资金需求领域有着较大差异。为满足“一带一路”共建国家低碳转型的需求,中国需要加快气候合作战略与经济转型及国际化战略的深度对接;发挥中国在新能源领域的比较优势,助力共建国家能源低碳转型进程;推动中国气候变化南南合作基金的加速落实,促进“一带一路”绿色投融资合作;加强气候合作的能力建设,分享碳市场建设的经验,推动建立广泛参与、各尽所能、务实有效、合作共赢的全球气候治理体系。
Abstract:Climate cooperation among Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries holds significant practical importance for achieving low-carbon transition and sustainable development within the BRI framework. To analyze the pathway towards low-carbon transition under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and emission quota allocation methods, the CGEM-BRI model was developed. The study also examined the potential requirements for climate finance, capacity building, and management system. Based on these findings, recommendations for climate cooperation between China and BRI countries were formulated. The study revealed that in order to limit global temperature rise for 1.5℃ in 2100, renewable energy sources should account for a minimum 65% of total primary energy consumption across all BRI countries by 2050. Achieving the low-carbon development goals outlined in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of major BRI countries is estimated to require at least $19.2 trillion, with varying funding needs across different countries. To facilitate this transition, China must expedite the integration of its climate cooperation strategy with its economic transition and internationalization strategy, thereby assisting BRI countries in their own transitions. China also need to utilize China' s comparative advantages in the field of new energy to accelerate the process of low-carbon energy transition in BRI countries. Furthermore, it is crucial to accelerate the implementation of the China Climate Change South-South Cooperation Fund and promote green investment and financing cooperation among BRI countries. Lastly, it is needed to strengthen capacity building initiatives for climate cooperation and foster the establishment of a global climate governance system that encourages broad participation.
keywords: Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) low-carbon transition pathways climate change climate cooperation
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基金项目:国家重点研发项目(2018YFA0606504),中国科学院青年创新促进会(2022151)
引用文本:
朱开伟,谭显春,顾佰和,张建平,孔令斯.“一带一路”共建国家低碳转型路径研究与气候合作建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2023,38(9):1398-1406.
ZHU Kaiwei,TAN Xianchun,GU Baihe,ZHANG Jianping,KONG Lingsi.Research on low-carbon transition pathways and suggestions for climate cooperation of BRI countries[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2023,38(9):1398-1406.
朱开伟,谭显春,顾佰和,张建平,孔令斯.“一带一路”共建国家低碳转型路径研究与气候合作建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2023,38(9):1398-1406.
ZHU Kaiwei,TAN Xianchun,GU Baihe,ZHANG Jianping,KONG Lingsi.Research on low-carbon transition pathways and suggestions for climate cooperation of BRI countries[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2023,38(9):1398-1406.