穆荣平,王瑞祥.技术预见的发展及其在中国的应用[J].中国科学院院刊,2004,(4):259-263.

穆荣平
科技政策与管理科学研究所 北京100080
Mu Rongping
Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, 100080 Beijing
王瑞祥
科技政策与管理科学研究所 北京100080
Wang Ruixiang
Institute of Policy and Management, CAS, 100080 Beijing

         技术预见;德尔菲调查;优先领域选择

        Technology Foresight;Delphi survey;priority setting

        技术预见是对科学、技术、经济、环境和社会的远期未来所进行的有步骤的探索过程,旨在选择战略研究领域和通用新技术。通常采用德尔菲调查方法。20世纪90年代以来,技术预见已经成为一股世界潮流,被各国用来确定科学技术发展的优先领域。中国科学院于2003年启动了“中国未来20年技术预见研究”,运用德尔菲调查、情景分析等方法识别和选择未来关键技术课题,构建官产学研沟通、协商与协调机制。目前项目进展顺利。

        Technology Foresight is a process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, environment and society with the aim of identifiying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies. The major method of Technology Foresight is Delphi survey. From 1990s, Technology Foresight has become a trend in the world. It is used as an important tool for science and technology priority setting in many countries. In 2003, the Chinese Academy of Sciences initiated a project - Technology Foresight for Future 20 Years in China. The aim of the project is to recognize and select critical technologies in future, and to help to establish a communicating, negotiating and coordinating mechanism for government, business and academia. Now the project is well getting along.