董志,董纪昌,吴迪,李秀婷,汪寿阳.2014年我国房地产市场展望与预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2014,29(2):242-247.

董志 董纪昌 吴迪 李秀婷 汪寿阳

         房地产市场，展望，预测

        real estate market, outlook, forecasting

        文章根据对国内经济形势的分析以及模型测算，预测2014 年房地产开发投资完成 额同比增速约为19.9%，增速与2013 年基本持平；2014 年全国商品房销售面积同比增速约为 6.7%，商品房销售额同比增速约为14.5%；预计2014 年房地产新开工面积同比增速约为 4.6%，增幅较2013 年显著回落；2014 年全年商品房销售平均价格约为6 690 元/平方米，同比 增长7.3%。主要原因包括：宏观经济整体运行保持良好，房地产市场投资稳定增长；信贷扩 张速度放缓，刚性需求释放减缓，房地产市场交易增速有所放缓；房地产市场供给相对充足 保证市场交易稳中有升；购房者涨价预期未变等。

        Based on the analysis of economic situation and econometric model, we predict that the growth rate of real estate investment may reach 19.9%, the similar level of 2013. The growth rate of commercial housing sales in term of square meters may be around 6.7%, and the growth rate of sales in term of monetary may reach 14.5%. The growth rate of newly started construction might be 4.6%, lower than that in 2013. The housing price will keep a stable pace. Its growth rate might reach 7.3%. The main reasons are as follows: The macroeconomics will be in good operation, which will have an influence on real estate investment. The growth rate of transactions will be slow down owing to the low growth rate of loan expansion and rigid demand. The supply will keep at a sufficient level to guarantee the transactions at a steady and slowly growing pace. The price rising expectation will stay the same.