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中文摘要: "十二五"期间人民币很可能保持持续升值的态势,增长、通胀和内需都或将面临压力,因此制定化解升值风险、保障国家经济安全的政策显得十分必要。本文基于动态8区域CGE模型和自主开发的DMCGE-C政策模拟系统,通过模拟分析3种典型的人民币升值情景发现,即使在不包含中国进出口定价权的"最坏情况"下,升值和"涨工资"同时运行的组合政策也可以显著对冲单一升值政策对增长、进出口与内需的不利影响,而对于推高通货膨胀的影响并不大,同时对提高居民收入,缩小区域差距,扩大内需,加快经济发展方式转变等诸多方面都有促进作用,从而建议中国在"十二五"期间加快提高居民工资水平。
Abstract:During the 12th national Five-Year-Plan period,RMB is likely to keep the situation of continued appreciation.Therefore,growth,import,export and domestic demand will be under great pressure.It is necessary to reduce appreciation risk and ensure the national economic security with proper economic security policies.Based on dynamic inter-regional CGE model and self-developed DMCGE-C simulator,we analyze three typical appreciation scenarios and find that the combination policy of appreciation comprising wage increasing is good for reducing the risk of GDP,import,export and domestic demand.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目(70933002);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(编号:KACX1-YW-0907)的资助
引用文本：
孙翊,王铮.增长、通胀、内需与人民币升值问题——基于动态多区域CGE的模拟分析[J].中国科学院院刊,2011,(5):526-535.
Sun Yi,Wangzheng.Policy Modeling on National Economic Security Policies in the Context of the Appreciation of RMB——A Dynamic Multi-Regional CGE Model[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2011,(5):526-535.
孙翊,王铮.增长、通胀、内需与人民币升值问题——基于动态多区域CGE的模拟分析[J].中国科学院院刊,2011,(5):526-535.
Sun Yi,Wangzheng.Policy Modeling on National Economic Security Policies in the Context of the Appreciation of RMB——A Dynamic Multi-Regional CGE Model[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2011,(5):526-535.
