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中文摘要: 2014 年， 我国经济总体上保持了稳增长、低通胀的良好局面， 预计全年
GDP 增速为 7.4%左右， CPI增速在 2.1%左右。 展望 2015 年， 我国经济增长仍将面
临着很多不确定性，经济增速将进一步减缓。 但我国经济长期增长的主要动力依
然强劲， 深化改革的政策红利将逐步释放， 2015 年我国经济增速不会出现大幅度
下滑。 预计 2015 年 GDP 增速将呈现前低后高的走势， 年度 GDP 增速约为 7.2%；
通货膨胀压力降低， CPI 逐渐走低， 全年 CPI 涨幅在 1.3%左右。 从三大需求看，
2015 年进出口增速将有所回升， 出口额同比增长约 6.3%， 进口额同比增长约
5.5%， 贸易顺差也将增加； 消费将保持平稳增长， 预计 2015 年社会消费品零售总
额增速在 11%左右， 与 2014 年相比略有下降； 投资增速稳中略降， 预计 2015 年固
定资产投资增速在 15%左右， 和 2014 年相比降低约 0.8 个百分点。 三大需求之
中，消费对我国经济增长的贡献将有所扩大，中国经济结构将有所改善。
中文关键词: GDP增速，物价，投资，消费，进出口，预测
Abstract:In 2014, China’ s economy has been at a relatively sound state with stable growth and low inflation.
We expect that the GDP growth rate would be about 7.4% and CPI would be about 2.1% for 2014. There are a
lot of uncertainties for China’ s economy in 2015, and the economic growth will further slow down. Nevertheless, the long-term driving force for China’ s economy is still strong, and the policy benefit of deepening reform
will appear gradually. Therefore, there will not be a big slowdown for 2015. We predict that China’ s economic
growth in 2015 will go low at the first half year and will go up at the second half year, and the yearly growth
rate will be around 7.2%. CPI in 2015 will keep on going down, and the yearly CPI will be around 1.3%. The
foreign trade will be improved, and the growth rates of exports and imports might be around 6.3% and 5.5% respectively. The balance of foreign trade in 2015 will increase slightly. The consumptions in 2015 will keep a relatively stable pace with the growth rate about 11%, slightly lower than that in 2014. The growth rate of investment might be around 15%, 0.8% lower than that of 2014. The consumption contribution to GDP will be enlarged, which improves China’ s economic structure.
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| Center of Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences | Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, |
引用文本：
中国科学院预测科学研究中心.[2015年第1期] 2015年中国经济形势展望及预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2015,30(1):.
Center of Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences.Prospect of China’ s economy in 2015 and its macroeconomic forecasting[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2015,30(1):.
中国科学院预测科学研究中心.[2015年第1期] 2015年中国经济形势展望及预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2015,30(1):.
Center of Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences.Prospect of China’ s economy in 2015 and its macroeconomic forecasting[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2015,30(1):.
