Abstract:Looking ahead to 2015, the game between the traditional oil-producing countries and the emerging energy consuming countries will play a key role in determining the trend of international oil prices. The internal divergence between the OPEC members on production decisions will influence oil market supply. Moreover, U.S. monetary policy adjustment and its impact on global capital flow could also send shockwaves through the oil market. Using our oil price analysis and forecasting synthetic system, we forecast that in 2015, the risk of uncertainty in the international oil market will increase and there will be an upward trend in oil prices after an initial fall. Overall, we predict that the Brent average year price may stand at 72 dollars per barrel, with the WTI average year price standing at 67 dollars per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI will therefore be narrowed to 5 dollars per barrel. In addition, global crude oil will still be over capacity in 2015 and the loose balance of oversupply will not change. World oil demand will increase slightly and China will be the main driver of oil demand growth. The world’ s oil supply will continue to rise, which is mainly from North America, Latin America, and China. Meanwhile, the commercial oil inventory of the OECD countries will raise a little, which will put pressure on the market and suppress oil prices. In 2015, the basic situation of moderate global economic recovery will continue. On the whole, the trend for differential development across the global economy will be more apparent, with America return to a strong path of recovery and the Euro zone countries experiencing a continuing weak recovery, i.e., emerging economies will face structural adjustment and slowdown the development. Oil market speculation will be limited further, with global capital flows affecting speculative activity. The normalization of market trading behaviour will make market operations more orderly and the disturbances caused by speculation on oil prices will be limited within a certain range. Dollar-exchange-rate appreciation is highly expected, which will push down oil prices. The end of quantitative-easing-focused monetary policies will enhance the attractiveness of dollar assets. Meanwhile, global capital will flow into U.S. again, which will further raise the dollar’ s value. Political games have become a new dominant force in oil prices, indicating that a new order is being formed in the international oil market. International oil trade patterns are undergoing dramatic changes, with a furious fight for market dominance and involvement in international interests taking place. Competition has reached a new level in this regard. Under this new environment of competition, following recommendations are put forward：（1）To take the advantages of large oil-importing country to strengthen its bargaining chips in international negotiations. It is suggested for China to establish multiple energy cooperation relations with major oil producers such as Russia and Saudi Arabia in order to expand its cooperation network in relation to overseas oil；（2） To speed up the pace of acquisition and investment in low-risk areas and promote the use of international oil and gas resources to ensure its long-term energy security；（3） To import more oil, relaxing restrictions on the import operation qualifications of enterprises and encouraging the construction of business inventories in order to accelerate the development of the strategic petroleum reserve system；（4） To bring domestic crude oil futures to market as soon as possible to create stronger influence in global oil markets, especially in Asia-Pacific petroleum pricing system; and； （5）To reform its pricing mechanisms on refined petroleum products in order to ensure that domestic prices maintain a close relationship with international prices.