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投稿时间：2016-12-25
投稿时间：2016-12-25
中文摘要: 2016年，我国经济增长下行势头减缓，国内生产总值（GDP）增速全年运行平稳，保持在6.7%水平上。物价延续了2015年温和上涨走势，涨幅较2015年同期有所扩大，全年消费价格指数（CPI）约为2.1%。预计2017年我国经济将呈现“稳中略降，稳中向好”态势，全年GDP增速约为6.5%左右。物价继续保持温和上涨的态势，2017年全年CPI涨幅2.3%左右。三大需求中，进出口将继续表现为负增长。以美元计价，预计2017年进出口总额下降约5.4%左右，出口同比下降约6.9%，进口同比下降约3.4%。消费将保持平稳增长，预计2017年最终消费增速在9%左右。投资增速将略有上升，预计2017年固定资产投资增速在8.5%左右。
Abstract:In 2016, the downward speed of China's economic growth became slow, GDP growth in the whole year ran smoothly. It may reach about 6.7% annually. Prices kept the moderate upward trend of 2015, and CPI might be about 2.1% in 2016. We expect that, in 2017, China's economy will stay in a steady state with a slight decline, but turn to a good position. The annual GDP growth rate may reach about 6.5%. Prices continue to maintain the moderate upward trend, and the annual CPI probably increases about 2.3%. The import and export will have a negative growth, the total volume of import and export is expected to decline by about 5.4%, exports fell by about 6.9%, imports fell by about 3.4% respectively. The consumption will maintain steady growth in 2017, and the final consumption growth rate is expected to around 9%. The investment growth rate might rise slightly in 2017. It is expected that the growth rate of fixed assets investment reaches around 8.5%.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（71125005、71673269、71431008），国家社科基金（15ZDA011）
引用文本：
中国科学院预测科学研究中心宏观经济部.2017年中国经济核心指标预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(1):64-69.
Division of Macro-economy Study, Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences.Forecasting China's Major Economic Indexes for 2017[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(1):64-69.
中国科学院预测科学研究中心宏观经济部.2017年中国经济核心指标预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(1):64-69.
Division of Macro-economy Study, Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences.Forecasting China's Major Economic Indexes for 2017[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(1):64-69.
